Projects Always Start Red
Hosts: Ed Schaefer & Andy Siegmund
Episode: 16 (Season 2, Episode 2)
Runtime: Approximately 52 minutes
Release Date: February 24, 2026
Website: leadershipexploredpod.com
Episode Description
You kick off a new project, nothing has slipped yet, and the first status report goes out… green. But should it? In this episode, Ed and Andy challenge a default that quietly fuels late-stage surprises: treating “not behind yet” as “on track.” They argue that projects don’t start green—they start uncertain, and uncertainty is risk.
Ed introduces the idea that projects should “earn their way to green” by reducing unknowns over time, not by waiting until something breaks. Andy pushes on practicality: different project types, organizational culture, and the reality that RAG status is often an escalation trigger—not a learning tool. Together, they land on a more usable approach for real organizations: add trend and confidence signals (and separate “uncertainty” from “needs escalation”) so leaders can see what’s coming before it’s too late.
What Ed & Andy discuss
Why “green at kickoff” often means optimism, not true status
The difference between measuring “have we failed yet?” vs. “how confident are we?”
How the cone of uncertainty shows up in real delivery work
Why dependency-heavy work creates an illusion of control
Andy’s “panic meter” analogy (and why it’s a surprisingly practical model)
How to make this usable without starting a culture war in your PMO
The role of psychological safety in honest, early reporting
Episode Highlights (Timestamps)
⏳ [00:00] The kickoff status report problem: “green” as default
⏳ [02:00] The core thesis: early projects are high-uncertainty—so why call them green?
⏳ [05:12] Andy’s pushback: repeatable work vs. true uncertainty
⏳ [08:23] Ed’s workaround: an “initialization phase” that’s off-RAG
⏳ [20:25] The big question: if you start red, what’s the escalation mechanism?
⏳ [28:27] The “panic meter” framing (and why it clicks)
⏳ [35:11] Dependency math + complexity: why confidence collapses fast
⏳ [44:03] The practical move: trends, confidence, and unknowns in reporting
⏳ [51:40] Three tactical actions you can use tomorrow
Key Takeaways
Status isn’t just color—it’s signal. Without trend and confidence, green can hide real risk.
Early honesty prevents late drama. If leadership only finds out at “red,” the system trained people to delay truth.
Separate uncertainty from escalation. Not every unknown requires executive intervention—but pretending unknowns don’t exist creates surprises.
Trend beats snapshot. “Amber trending green” is often healthier than “Green trending down.”
Culture is the real constraint. You don’t “implement” better reporting; you co-create it to fit how your organization reacts to bad news.
“Your Move This Week” (Listener Challenge)
Pick a project that’s early-stage and ask: Is our status green because we’re confident… or because we’re hopeful?
Then try one of these:
Add a confidence score (1–5) next to status
Add a trend arrow (improving / flat / worsening)
List the top unknowns explicitly—and what it will take to turn them into knowns
Key Quotes
“When we mark it green on week one, we’re not reporting status—we’re reporting optimism.”
“I don’t think it benefits us to manage decline.”
“When the vets start getting stressed out, treat that like a signal.”
“Real leadership isn’t pretending you know the future. It’s reducing what you don’t know—on purpose.”
Potentially Spicy / Debate-Worthy Moments
Calling projects “red” at the start sounds like pessimism—Ed argues it’s just math and realism.
The idea that traditional RAG reporting is structurally designed to hide uncertainty until it becomes undeniable.
The critique that many dependency-heavy plans are basically “hope with slideware,” even when everyone reports green.
Contact / Feedback
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